Wednesday, July 30, 2008
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Bennigan's and Steak and Ale Face Bankruptcy
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121734771456393641.html
Dining Chains Shut Doors
Bennigan's, Steak and Ale To Liquidate as Glutted Restaurant Industry Shakes Out
By JEFFREY MCCRACKEN and JANET ADAMY
After filing for Chapter 7 bankruptcy, the parent company of national chains Bennigan's and Steak and Ale on Tuesday shut hundreds of restaurants, putting thousands of employees out of work.
The move by privately held Plano, Texas-based Metromedia Restaurant Group knocks down two sit-down chains that have been part of the country's casual-dining landscape for decades.
About 200 restaurants were closed immediately, including all of the remaining 50 or so Steak and Ales. The filing eliminates full and part-time jobs for more than 9,200 employees, many of those in Texas, Florida and Illinois, three people familiar with the matter said.
Another 138 franchisee-owned Bennigan's sites aren't part of the filing and intend to remain open. They face a more uncertain future, however, given they'll no longer have the full support of parent company Metromedia Restaurant Group, a unit of billionaire John Kluge's Metromedia empire.
A company spokeswoman, Leah Templeton, declined to answer specific questions about the closings and the filing. In an email, she said that stores operated by franchisees are not named as debtors in the filings, and that future decisions regarding the affairs of the debtor companies will be determined and administered by a bankruptcy trustee.
In addition to Bennigan's and Steak and Ale, the filing includes a handful of Tavern restaurants, an experimental concept at Metromedia. It doesn't include the company's Ponderosa and Bonanza restaurants, which operate under Metromedia Steakhouses Co., she said.
The filing marked one of the largest Chapter 7 bankruptcies of a restaurant chain in recent history, according to restaurant consultancy Technomic, and is the most extreme sign yet of how midprice, sit-down restaurants are undergoing one of their worst periods in decades. Challenger, Gray & Christmas says the resulting layoffs constitute the sixth-largest mass job cut of the year.
High ingredient and labor costs are eating into profits, and several years of rapid expansion by bar and grill chains has left a glut of locations in the market. Pressures such as high gasoline prices and dwindling home values have prompted consumers to eat out less often or switch to cheaper fast-food meals.
Restaurant pioneer Norman Brinker founded Steak and Ale in 1966 in Dallas. The chain, with its dimly lit dining rooms, has billed itself as offering an upscale steak experience at lower prices. It was seen as a model for the casual-dining steakhouse chain, and many executives there went on to run other large chains.
Bennigan's, founded in Atlanta in 1976, expanded rapidly across the country in the 1990s, opening hundreds of its pub-themed restaurants to entice diners with over-size sandwich platters and happy hours. Irish-themed Bennigan's is known for fried Monte Cristo sandwiches, walls cluttered with antique photos and slightly lower prices than its rivals, like three-course meals for $10.99.
The venerable chains weren't able to survive in part because their menus and atmosphere failed to set them apart from the pack, said Ron Paul, president of restaurant consultancy Technomic.
"There's just too many stores in this category," said Mr. Paul, whose firm has done work for Metromedia. "Most of these places aren't even that full on a Saturday night." Chains have already started slowing their expansion and shutting locations, and Mr. Paul expects that will accelerate.
Other large national chains that have filed for bankruptcy this year include Vicorp Restaurants Inc.'s Bakers Square and Village Inn and Buffets Inc.'s Old Country Buffet. Those chains, however, are trying to restructure and eventually emerge from bankruptcy, while Bennigan's and Steak and Ale are planning to liquidate.
Metromedia Restaurant Group earlier this year violated terms of a lending agreement with GE Capital Solutions. It had been in negotiations with lenders since last year to stave off the filing, while closing about 75 stores and looking for a buyer, said two people involved in the matter.
Metromedia's largest lenders are GE and the Bank of New York, which also own most of the chains' real estate. Over the past year, the parent company has had to contribute about $100 million to meet payroll and some debt obligations, these people said.
Late Monday, managers at Bennigan's and Steak and Ale were called or emailed and told not to open restaurants the next day, according to two people familiar with the matter. Employees were told there wouldn't be enough money to pay them for the rest of the week, these people said.
The abrupt shutdown took employees and customers by surprise. At a closed Bennigan's in downtown Chicago on Tuesday, tables were still stacked with rolls of silverware, ketchup and menus, and the neon signs remained lit. Posted on the doors, however, were paper signs that read: "Sorry we are closed."
A hostess at that location, who declined to give her name, said she worked until midnight on Monday and was given no indication the store was in trouble. "I was kind of shocked," she said.
A growing number of struggling companies are opting to liquidate rather than try to restructure in bankruptcy. Bankruptcy lawyers say many are caught between a slowing economy, a lack of bankruptcy financing and loose, covenant-lite bank agreements that allowed their financial situations to worsen before creditors could intervene.
Dining Chains Shut Doors
Bennigan's, Steak and Ale To Liquidate as Glutted Restaurant Industry Shakes Out
By JEFFREY MCCRACKEN and JANET ADAMY
After filing for Chapter 7 bankruptcy, the parent company of national chains Bennigan's and Steak and Ale on Tuesday shut hundreds of restaurants, putting thousands of employees out of work.
The move by privately held Plano, Texas-based Metromedia Restaurant Group knocks down two sit-down chains that have been part of the country's casual-dining landscape for decades.
About 200 restaurants were closed immediately, including all of the remaining 50 or so Steak and Ales. The filing eliminates full and part-time jobs for more than 9,200 employees, many of those in Texas, Florida and Illinois, three people familiar with the matter said.
Another 138 franchisee-owned Bennigan's sites aren't part of the filing and intend to remain open. They face a more uncertain future, however, given they'll no longer have the full support of parent company Metromedia Restaurant Group, a unit of billionaire John Kluge's Metromedia empire.
A company spokeswoman, Leah Templeton, declined to answer specific questions about the closings and the filing. In an email, she said that stores operated by franchisees are not named as debtors in the filings, and that future decisions regarding the affairs of the debtor companies will be determined and administered by a bankruptcy trustee.
In addition to Bennigan's and Steak and Ale, the filing includes a handful of Tavern restaurants, an experimental concept at Metromedia. It doesn't include the company's Ponderosa and Bonanza restaurants, which operate under Metromedia Steakhouses Co., she said.
The filing marked one of the largest Chapter 7 bankruptcies of a restaurant chain in recent history, according to restaurant consultancy Technomic, and is the most extreme sign yet of how midprice, sit-down restaurants are undergoing one of their worst periods in decades. Challenger, Gray & Christmas says the resulting layoffs constitute the sixth-largest mass job cut of the year.
High ingredient and labor costs are eating into profits, and several years of rapid expansion by bar and grill chains has left a glut of locations in the market. Pressures such as high gasoline prices and dwindling home values have prompted consumers to eat out less often or switch to cheaper fast-food meals.
Restaurant pioneer Norman Brinker founded Steak and Ale in 1966 in Dallas. The chain, with its dimly lit dining rooms, has billed itself as offering an upscale steak experience at lower prices. It was seen as a model for the casual-dining steakhouse chain, and many executives there went on to run other large chains.
Bennigan's, founded in Atlanta in 1976, expanded rapidly across the country in the 1990s, opening hundreds of its pub-themed restaurants to entice diners with over-size sandwich platters and happy hours. Irish-themed Bennigan's is known for fried Monte Cristo sandwiches, walls cluttered with antique photos and slightly lower prices than its rivals, like three-course meals for $10.99.
The venerable chains weren't able to survive in part because their menus and atmosphere failed to set them apart from the pack, said Ron Paul, president of restaurant consultancy Technomic.
"There's just too many stores in this category," said Mr. Paul, whose firm has done work for Metromedia. "Most of these places aren't even that full on a Saturday night." Chains have already started slowing their expansion and shutting locations, and Mr. Paul expects that will accelerate.
Other large national chains that have filed for bankruptcy this year include Vicorp Restaurants Inc.'s Bakers Square and Village Inn and Buffets Inc.'s Old Country Buffet. Those chains, however, are trying to restructure and eventually emerge from bankruptcy, while Bennigan's and Steak and Ale are planning to liquidate.
Metromedia Restaurant Group earlier this year violated terms of a lending agreement with GE Capital Solutions. It had been in negotiations with lenders since last year to stave off the filing, while closing about 75 stores and looking for a buyer, said two people involved in the matter.
Metromedia's largest lenders are GE and the Bank of New York, which also own most of the chains' real estate. Over the past year, the parent company has had to contribute about $100 million to meet payroll and some debt obligations, these people said.
Late Monday, managers at Bennigan's and Steak and Ale were called or emailed and told not to open restaurants the next day, according to two people familiar with the matter. Employees were told there wouldn't be enough money to pay them for the rest of the week, these people said.
The abrupt shutdown took employees and customers by surprise. At a closed Bennigan's in downtown Chicago on Tuesday, tables were still stacked with rolls of silverware, ketchup and menus, and the neon signs remained lit. Posted on the doors, however, were paper signs that read: "Sorry we are closed."
A hostess at that location, who declined to give her name, said she worked until midnight on Monday and was given no indication the store was in trouble. "I was kind of shocked," she said.
A growing number of struggling companies are opting to liquidate rather than try to restructure in bankruptcy. Bankruptcy lawyers say many are caught between a slowing economy, a lack of bankruptcy financing and loose, covenant-lite bank agreements that allowed their financial situations to worsen before creditors could intervene.
Some More Signs of the Depression
Says a Detroit resident:
"Here in Southeastern Michigan, we got a head start on y'all in terms of the Depression. Things look especially bleak here. There are empty strip malls everywhere, especially in the medium-to-nicer 'burbs. There are unfinished strip malls all around where I live. There are half-finished condo and townhouse projects, with the finished phases being 50% - 80% empty, and the rest of the properties consisting of 4-foot weeds. There are prime pieces of property on the semi-rural, north end of the 'burbs that are cleared for development, with the home models sitting empty, and nothing but acres and acres of weeds filling the land.
So many niche businesses have closed - scrapbooking stores, mom-and-pop pet stores and grooming businesses, car detailing/accessory shops, small clothing stores, gift shoppes, florists, sports memorabilia shops, small gyms, etc. There are more empty gas stations and auto service centers than I have ever seen before. Nice - but newer - restaurants and taverns that opened at the height of the boom are mostly gone. Only the neighborhood staples and successful chains are going to remain. The super-duper auto dealers - who built massive castles on huge plots of land - are starting to fall.
Every neighborhood - from lower middle class to upper middle class - has numerous empty houses. Most of the Starbucks here are closing. Retail stores are cutting back hours: opening later and closing earlier. Even the big, indoor malls are emptying out rather quickly. Harley-Davidson had built some beautiful mega-stores here in the last few years, and 2-3 years ago, you were lucky to push your way through the door and find a salesperson. Now, in the middle of a Saturday in summer, the salespeople sit around, and there is hardly anybody milling about the dealership. They just aren't selling $18,000 bikes. My doctor - a long-respected practitioner, here - force-fed me referral sheets last time I was there. For every patient referral, I get a $10 gift card to a Home Depot, or whatever. The office manager also gave me DVDs highlighting the practice, for handing out to my friends.
Massage therapists are going out of business everywhere, including my own guy. My hair stylist, a highly-skilled stylist who charges in the $45 - $60 range, said business is down 40%, and he's down to working 3 days per week. His salon has gained two new renters who closed up their own salon businesses. I am getting coupons in the mail from local businesses that have never before offered coupons. All those huge, beautifully-built, stand-alone jewelry stores that went up over the last 6-8 years, when a person's house was the ideal ATM? Closing. I never used to dare venture into a Wal-Mart or a Lowe's (or Home Depot) in the middle of a weekend day, because of the nagging crowds. Now I'll go because the parking lots are 20% full, or less."
"Here in Southeastern Michigan, we got a head start on y'all in terms of the Depression. Things look especially bleak here. There are empty strip malls everywhere, especially in the medium-to-nicer 'burbs. There are unfinished strip malls all around where I live. There are half-finished condo and townhouse projects, with the finished phases being 50% - 80% empty, and the rest of the properties consisting of 4-foot weeds. There are prime pieces of property on the semi-rural, north end of the 'burbs that are cleared for development, with the home models sitting empty, and nothing but acres and acres of weeds filling the land.
So many niche businesses have closed - scrapbooking stores, mom-and-pop pet stores and grooming businesses, car detailing/accessory shops, small clothing stores, gift shoppes, florists, sports memorabilia shops, small gyms, etc. There are more empty gas stations and auto service centers than I have ever seen before. Nice - but newer - restaurants and taverns that opened at the height of the boom are mostly gone. Only the neighborhood staples and successful chains are going to remain. The super-duper auto dealers - who built massive castles on huge plots of land - are starting to fall.
Every neighborhood - from lower middle class to upper middle class - has numerous empty houses. Most of the Starbucks here are closing. Retail stores are cutting back hours: opening later and closing earlier. Even the big, indoor malls are emptying out rather quickly. Harley-Davidson had built some beautiful mega-stores here in the last few years, and 2-3 years ago, you were lucky to push your way through the door and find a salesperson. Now, in the middle of a Saturday in summer, the salespeople sit around, and there is hardly anybody milling about the dealership. They just aren't selling $18,000 bikes. My doctor - a long-respected practitioner, here - force-fed me referral sheets last time I was there. For every patient referral, I get a $10 gift card to a Home Depot, or whatever. The office manager also gave me DVDs highlighting the practice, for handing out to my friends.
Massage therapists are going out of business everywhere, including my own guy. My hair stylist, a highly-skilled stylist who charges in the $45 - $60 range, said business is down 40%, and he's down to working 3 days per week. His salon has gained two new renters who closed up their own salon businesses. I am getting coupons in the mail from local businesses that have never before offered coupons. All those huge, beautifully-built, stand-alone jewelry stores that went up over the last 6-8 years, when a person's house was the ideal ATM? Closing. I never used to dare venture into a Wal-Mart or a Lowe's (or Home Depot) in the middle of a weekend day, because of the nagging crowds. Now I'll go because the parking lots are 20% full, or less."
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Australia Faces Worse Crisis Than America
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/07/30/cnoz130.xml&CMP=ILC-mostviewedbox
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor
The world's financial storm has swept through Australia and New Zealand this week amid mounting signs of contagion across the Pacific region.
Many fear the economic party in Australia will end badly
Financial shares were pummelled in Sydney on Tuesday after investor flight forced National Australia Bank (NAB) to slash a £400m bond sale by two thirds.
The retreat comes days after the Melbourne lender shocked the markets by announcing a 90pc write-down on its £550m holdings of US mortgage debt, an admission that it AAA-rated securities are virtually worthless.
In New Zealand, Guardian Trust said it was suspending withdrawals from its mortgage fund owing to "liquidity difficulties in the market".
Hanover Finance - the country' third biggest operator - last week froze repayments to investors. The company said its "industry model has collapsed" as the housing market goes into a nose dive. Some 23 finance companies have gone bankrupt in New Zealand over the last year.
It is now clear that the Antipodes are tipping into a serious downturn. Australia's NAB business confidence index fell to its lowest level in seventeen years in June. New Zealand's central bank began to cut interest rates last week on fears that the economy may have contracted in the second quarter, and is now entering recession. Housing starts slumped 20pc in June to the lowest since 1986.
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Gabriel Stein, from Lombard Street Research, said Australia could prove vulnerable once the global commodity cycle turns down. It has racked up a current account deficit of 6.2pc of GDP despite enjoying a coal, wheat, and metals boom, effectively spending its resources bonanza in advance. Household debt has reached 177pc of GDP, almost a world record.
"It is amazing that in the midst of the biggest commodity boom ever seen they have still been unable to get a current account surplus. They have been living beyond their means for 10 years. What worries me is that productivity growth has been very low: they have coasting after their reforms in the 1990s," he said.
Australia's Reserve Bank has had to grapple with vast inflows of Asian capital, especially Japanese money fleeing near zero rates at home. Short of imposing currency controls, it would have been almost impossible to stop the inflows.
"The easy money went straight into real estate," said Hans Redeker, currency chief at BNP Paribas.
"Australia will now have to generate 4pc of GDP to meet payments to foreign holders of its assets," he said. This is twice as high as the burden faced by the US.
Both the Australian and New Zealand dollars have fallen hard in recent days and now appear to be breaking down through key technical support against major currencies, including the US dollar. "The Aussie is going down, big time," said Mr Redeker.
The picture is darkening across the Pacific Rim. The Bank of Japan's deputy governor, Kiyohiko Nishimura, said its economy may now be falling into a "technical recession". Household income dropped 2.1pc in June compared to a year earlier and manufacturers are the gloomiest since the deflation crunch in 2003.
The decision by National Australia Bank to make drastic provisions on its US mortgage debt could have ramifications in the US itself. It opted for a 100pc write-off on a clutch of "senior strips" of collateralized debt obligations (CDO) worth £450m - even though they were all rated AAA. No US bank has admitted to such fearsome loss rates.
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor
The world's financial storm has swept through Australia and New Zealand this week amid mounting signs of contagion across the Pacific region.
Many fear the economic party in Australia will end badly
Financial shares were pummelled in Sydney on Tuesday after investor flight forced National Australia Bank (NAB) to slash a £400m bond sale by two thirds.
The retreat comes days after the Melbourne lender shocked the markets by announcing a 90pc write-down on its £550m holdings of US mortgage debt, an admission that it AAA-rated securities are virtually worthless.
In New Zealand, Guardian Trust said it was suspending withdrawals from its mortgage fund owing to "liquidity difficulties in the market".
Hanover Finance - the country' third biggest operator - last week froze repayments to investors. The company said its "industry model has collapsed" as the housing market goes into a nose dive. Some 23 finance companies have gone bankrupt in New Zealand over the last year.
It is now clear that the Antipodes are tipping into a serious downturn. Australia's NAB business confidence index fell to its lowest level in seventeen years in June. New Zealand's central bank began to cut interest rates last week on fears that the economy may have contracted in the second quarter, and is now entering recession. Housing starts slumped 20pc in June to the lowest since 1986.
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Gabriel Stein, from Lombard Street Research, said Australia could prove vulnerable once the global commodity cycle turns down. It has racked up a current account deficit of 6.2pc of GDP despite enjoying a coal, wheat, and metals boom, effectively spending its resources bonanza in advance. Household debt has reached 177pc of GDP, almost a world record.
"It is amazing that in the midst of the biggest commodity boom ever seen they have still been unable to get a current account surplus. They have been living beyond their means for 10 years. What worries me is that productivity growth has been very low: they have coasting after their reforms in the 1990s," he said.
Australia's Reserve Bank has had to grapple with vast inflows of Asian capital, especially Japanese money fleeing near zero rates at home. Short of imposing currency controls, it would have been almost impossible to stop the inflows.
"The easy money went straight into real estate," said Hans Redeker, currency chief at BNP Paribas.
"Australia will now have to generate 4pc of GDP to meet payments to foreign holders of its assets," he said. This is twice as high as the burden faced by the US.
Both the Australian and New Zealand dollars have fallen hard in recent days and now appear to be breaking down through key technical support against major currencies, including the US dollar. "The Aussie is going down, big time," said Mr Redeker.
The picture is darkening across the Pacific Rim. The Bank of Japan's deputy governor, Kiyohiko Nishimura, said its economy may now be falling into a "technical recession". Household income dropped 2.1pc in June compared to a year earlier and manufacturers are the gloomiest since the deflation crunch in 2003.
The decision by National Australia Bank to make drastic provisions on its US mortgage debt could have ramifications in the US itself. It opted for a 100pc write-off on a clutch of "senior strips" of collateralized debt obligations (CDO) worth £450m - even though they were all rated AAA. No US bank has admitted to such fearsome loss rates.
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July 15th, 2008
We continue to see the lack of affordable health and dental insurance for millions of people. Congress has failed over and over to pass legislation that will provide adequate and affordable coverages.
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Some Americans Cut Credit Card Use
http://www.cnn.com/2008/LIVING/personal/07/30/credit.cardusedown/index.html
STRATFORD, Connecticut (CNN) -- When Cappie and Don Perras saw their stock market investments tank this year, they decided to tighten their belts. They drive fuel efficient cars around their Connecticut town and eat at cheaper restaurants if they eat out at all. To avoid impulse buying, they avoid the mall. And for now, at least, they've put away the credit cards.
This marks a big change from their old attitude.
"I felt secure with my credit cards like, 'Oh well, I always have my credit cards,' " says Cappie Perras, a special education teacher. "Now I feel like, it's almost like there's a big caution sign in front of the credit card, 'Do Not Use, Only In Case of Emergency,' " she adds.
The Perrases are examples of a trend building among middle-income and middle-aged consumers to cut back on credit card use, according to a new study by Javelin Strategy & Research, a financial research firm. Forty percent of consumers surveyed said they're pulling out their credit cards less than they were at the beginning of the year.
Don Perras, a college professor approaching retirement age, says the family has stopped using cards, except for rare instances like booking hotel rooms on the road. Instead, the couple uses their debit cards.
The aim: to soon be free of credit card debt.
"It would be a top priority," Don Perras said.
But with the high cost of living, the Perrases are having trouble making a dent in their $8,000 credit card balance.
"I used to be able to maybe put $600 towards the debt. ... Now it's maybe if I'm lucky, $200," his wife says.
The Perras family has plenty of company. Americans carry approximately $961.8 billion in revolving debt, according to the Federal Reserve Board. Delinquency rates on credit cards are at the highest levels since the end of 2002.
Even as consumers cut back on using credit cards, they're finding it harder to pay down their balances, says Javelin President James Van Dyke.
"In some cases they're out of work or perhaps their wages have been cut back, or maybe they had a variable rate which they have to pay more for than ever before," Van Dyke said. When people use their credit cards less, "this changes what goes on in the industry because credit card companies typically make a lot of their money on the fees they charge merchants."
The reduction in revenue from new purchases, combined with concerns about new delinquencies, pose big worries for the credit card industry, Van Dyke says.
"Credit card companies are running a bit scared right now, and for good reason, because people are having a difficult time paying off their balances; and everyday consumers, they're cutting into their purchases right now -- both luxury goods and even the basic necessities," Van Dyke says.
According to the Javelin study, nearly 70 percent of financial institutions say they have cut back on credit card solicitations. Six of 10 say they are limiting the amount of credit offered to customers.
James Chessen, chief economist for the American Bankers Association, says the industry is well prepared for the economic downturn. "It's all a matter of managing that risk, because you know the volume will be off, you know the economy is riskier today than it was a year ago. So you naturally take that into account so you have the capacity to come out of this even stronger than you came into it," he added.
For Cappie Perras, being stronger means cutting back on plastic. "I don't feel good about the credit cards," she says. "I regret that we got into so much credit card debt
STRATFORD, Connecticut (CNN) -- When Cappie and Don Perras saw their stock market investments tank this year, they decided to tighten their belts. They drive fuel efficient cars around their Connecticut town and eat at cheaper restaurants if they eat out at all. To avoid impulse buying, they avoid the mall. And for now, at least, they've put away the credit cards.
This marks a big change from their old attitude.
"I felt secure with my credit cards like, 'Oh well, I always have my credit cards,' " says Cappie Perras, a special education teacher. "Now I feel like, it's almost like there's a big caution sign in front of the credit card, 'Do Not Use, Only In Case of Emergency,' " she adds.
The Perrases are examples of a trend building among middle-income and middle-aged consumers to cut back on credit card use, according to a new study by Javelin Strategy & Research, a financial research firm. Forty percent of consumers surveyed said they're pulling out their credit cards less than they were at the beginning of the year.
Don Perras, a college professor approaching retirement age, says the family has stopped using cards, except for rare instances like booking hotel rooms on the road. Instead, the couple uses their debit cards.
The aim: to soon be free of credit card debt.
"It would be a top priority," Don Perras said.
But with the high cost of living, the Perrases are having trouble making a dent in their $8,000 credit card balance.
"I used to be able to maybe put $600 towards the debt. ... Now it's maybe if I'm lucky, $200," his wife says.
The Perras family has plenty of company. Americans carry approximately $961.8 billion in revolving debt, according to the Federal Reserve Board. Delinquency rates on credit cards are at the highest levels since the end of 2002.
Even as consumers cut back on using credit cards, they're finding it harder to pay down their balances, says Javelin President James Van Dyke.
"In some cases they're out of work or perhaps their wages have been cut back, or maybe they had a variable rate which they have to pay more for than ever before," Van Dyke said. When people use their credit cards less, "this changes what goes on in the industry because credit card companies typically make a lot of their money on the fees they charge merchants."
The reduction in revenue from new purchases, combined with concerns about new delinquencies, pose big worries for the credit card industry, Van Dyke says.
"Credit card companies are running a bit scared right now, and for good reason, because people are having a difficult time paying off their balances; and everyday consumers, they're cutting into their purchases right now -- both luxury goods and even the basic necessities," Van Dyke says.
According to the Javelin study, nearly 70 percent of financial institutions say they have cut back on credit card solicitations. Six of 10 say they are limiting the amount of credit offered to customers.
James Chessen, chief economist for the American Bankers Association, says the industry is well prepared for the economic downturn. "It's all a matter of managing that risk, because you know the volume will be off, you know the economy is riskier today than it was a year ago. So you naturally take that into account so you have the capacity to come out of this even stronger than you came into it," he added.
For Cappie Perras, being stronger means cutting back on plastic. "I don't feel good about the credit cards," she says. "I regret that we got into so much credit card debt
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Also have a package the will help diabetes with there meters and supplies. Any income level for this program.
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Two more US banks collapse as defaults soar
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article4412948.ece
From The Times
July 28, 2008
Two more US banks collapse as defaults soarSuzy Jagger in New York
Financial authorities in Washington spent last week securing a rescue deal for two insolvent mortgage lenders in Nevada and California amid the latest signs that America's banking crisis is deepening.
The collapse of the two banks - which had combined assets of about $3.6 billion (£1.8billion) - came as a senior financial regulator told The Times that there was no end in sight for the crisis gripping the banking industry.
On Friday, Washington announced that it had forced the closure of First National Bank of Nevada and First Heritage Bank in California after they had found the first lender to have engaged in unsafe and unsound lending practices that had depleted its capital, and the second to be generally undercapitalised.
The closure of the banks comes within two weeks of the collapse of IndyMac, a big Californian mortgage lender, and raises new concerns that many more banks may be at serious risk of failure as America's financial crisis worsens.
Wall Street has been monitoring nervously the problem-list of banks that are under close scrutiny by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), the Washington agency that insures banking deposits. That list has grown to include 90 banks over the first quarter of this year, compared with 76 in the last quarter of 2007.
A division of the US Treasury took over the two banks last week and sold the bulk of their businesses on to Mutual of Omaha Bank. However, while the Omaha Bank acquired all the deposits from both banks, the FDIC - effectively Washington's receiver - has been forced to pick up the remaining $860 million of troubled assets.
First National had total assets of $3.4 billion and $3 billion in deposits, while First Heritage had assets of $254 million and $233 million in deposits. Under the terms of the deal with the Mutual of Omaha, customers from both banks will automatically become clients of the new owner today, with no risk of loss of savings or banking facilities.
Customers of the two bust banks were also able to withdraw cash from ATMs at the weekend and to write cheques. There were no scenes of panic outside any of the 28 branches of either bank over the weekend, unlike the queues of customers who lined up outside IndyMac offices a fortnight ago.
Both banks operated in states that have borne the brunt of the American housing slump.
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From The Times
July 28, 2008
Two more US banks collapse as defaults soarSuzy Jagger in New York
Financial authorities in Washington spent last week securing a rescue deal for two insolvent mortgage lenders in Nevada and California amid the latest signs that America's banking crisis is deepening.
The collapse of the two banks - which had combined assets of about $3.6 billion (£1.8billion) - came as a senior financial regulator told The Times that there was no end in sight for the crisis gripping the banking industry.
On Friday, Washington announced that it had forced the closure of First National Bank of Nevada and First Heritage Bank in California after they had found the first lender to have engaged in unsafe and unsound lending practices that had depleted its capital, and the second to be generally undercapitalised.
The closure of the banks comes within two weeks of the collapse of IndyMac, a big Californian mortgage lender, and raises new concerns that many more banks may be at serious risk of failure as America's financial crisis worsens.
Wall Street has been monitoring nervously the problem-list of banks that are under close scrutiny by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), the Washington agency that insures banking deposits. That list has grown to include 90 banks over the first quarter of this year, compared with 76 in the last quarter of 2007.
A division of the US Treasury took over the two banks last week and sold the bulk of their businesses on to Mutual of Omaha Bank. However, while the Omaha Bank acquired all the deposits from both banks, the FDIC - effectively Washington's receiver - has been forced to pick up the remaining $860 million of troubled assets.
First National had total assets of $3.4 billion and $3 billion in deposits, while First Heritage had assets of $254 million and $233 million in deposits. Under the terms of the deal with the Mutual of Omaha, customers from both banks will automatically become clients of the new owner today, with no risk of loss of savings or banking facilities.
Customers of the two bust banks were also able to withdraw cash from ATMs at the weekend and to write cheques. There were no scenes of panic outside any of the 28 branches of either bank over the weekend, unlike the queues of customers who lined up outside IndyMac offices a fortnight ago.
Both banks operated in states that have borne the brunt of the American housing slump.
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potentially could give you a never ending stream of Free MLM Leads and traffic on literally complete autopilot. The truth is that most network marketers doesn't use these strategies, so I guess that they don't know about them.
The simple truth is that, the only thing that is keeping most people away to make a strong income in the network marketing industry is just a few "online skill sets" that literally anyone could learn...
It's not 1970 anymore when there were just a few network marketing Compnaies to choose from. Today, there are literally 1000's of different MLM Companies and millions of network marketers that are all fighting for the same prospects attention.
So, today you need to have a different approach then most other people out there that are just running around "blindly" trying to pitch each other on different network marketing opportunies.
Basically, in order to stand out from all the "masses" out there you just need to be a little bit better than the "masses" out there. When witing this, it's well over 1 billion people online and that is of critical importance for your MLM business.
And let's not forget, that by the year of 2010 it's predicted to be over 2 billion people online! So, if you can get your message out to "masses" of lazer targeted propects on the Internet 24 hours a day, then there will be almost impossible for you to NOT succeed with network marketing.
One way to start is that you learn some time-less and proven strategies on how to get insanely amounts of Free search engine traffic to your websites from Google, that is the 4th most visited website on the Internet right now!
And, in case you didn't know it already there are some sites that Google show a lot of love for and in this video I will reveal a few of them for you.
So, if you want to learn a few tricks that I have learned in order to get a top 10 position on Google for the keyword phrase that I'm trying to target, then you should watch this video.
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Affordable Dental Benefits Online-Pre-Existing Conditions
If you need an affordable dental plan and you can't get benefits because of ongoing or pre-existing conditions, maybe I can help you. The plan I offer is affordable, only $14.95 monthly for an individual or $19.95 for a household. No limits on use, no age limits, no waiting periods, no paperwork. This is the largest discount dental plan in the United States with 1.8 million members nationwide. Health plans also available. Call Troy K. Preston at 804-355-7161
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Poverty is no fun! Make Money Online using Google, Veretekk, Blastomatic, Leadsomatic and Free FFAS! Obtain Fantastic Health and Dental Plan at http://healthanddentalplan.org
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AFFORDABLE HEALTH CARE WITH NO PRE-EXISTING CONDITION CLAUSES.
Discounted Medical, dental, vision, prescription and chiropractic for low monthly fee For_Immediate_Release:
United States of America (Press Release) December 30, 2007 -- This discounted fee plan will offer and entire household of people for $39.95 a month regardless of age or relationship benefits of 50-80% savings in the medical, dental, vision, prescription, and chiropractic areas when they use providers in their areas that are contracted to our plan. We also have a smaller package for people on medicare, and people who have insurance, but need dental, vision, prescription and chiropractic benefits for $19.95 a month.
We also have a free prescription plan for people in the lower income ranges who are spending over $100.00 a month for their medications. No body should have to chose between medication and food.
Also have a package the will help diabetes with there meters and supplies. Any income level for this program.
This plan is not insurance.
Affordable Dental and Health Insurance
July 15th, 2008
We continue to see the lack of affordable health and dental insurance for millions of people. Congress has failed over and over to pass legislation that will provide adequate and affordable coverages.
There are alternatives, however. Ameriplan has a dental and medical discount plan that is extremely affordable and an alternative to expensive insurance plans. These discount plans have no waiting periods. We have thousands of providers nationally. These discount plans start at 19.95/month for an entire household and there are no exemptions or waiting periods.
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Ameriplan Home Business Opportunity MLM Network Marketing
Ever wanted to work at home part-time for 2 years and start earning $100,000 a year? Now you can. Ameriplan is the perfect home business opportunity that can bring you a lifetime of residual income. This is a legitimate opportunity with an honest, solid company and good people from top to bottom. Our team provides comprehensive training using sophisticated internet marketing techniques with very low overhead. Call Troy K. Preston at 804-355-7161.
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Ameriplan MLM Opportunity-Generate Leads and Traffic
Ameriplan is a fantastic opportunity for those in the fields of MLM, internet or network marketing or home business opportunity. But you need a large volume of quality leads to make it work. Join me in Ameriplan and I'll show how to generate an extraordinarily high volume of leads with very low overhead. No door to door, no buying expensive newspaper ads, no putting out sizzle cards, no purchasing crummy internet leads. Do it all sitting at home at your computer. You won't even need to go out of your front door. Call Troy K Preston at 804-355-7161
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Can't Afford Insurance? Try my Health Benefits Discount Plan
If you can't afford traditional health insurance, don't worry about it. Our health benefits discount plan is the solution. Call Troy K Preston at 804-355-7161.
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Call Troy K. Preston at 804-355-7161
Thursday, July 24, 2008
Employer Dental Benefits: Do You Need Them?
If you need dental benefits for your employees, call me at 804-355-7161.
Why Employers Get The Best Dental Benefits
Employers are able to get the best dental benefits plans, because they are able to offer the insurance company higher premiums. This is because the employee pays a portion of the premium, and the rest is paid by the employer. When you multiply this by several employees, and with large corporations we are talking several thousand employees, the insurance company will be receiving high premiums each month. As a result, they often offer large corporations excellent rates on their insurance policies, because they know the overall contract will be large. This enables employers to offer better overall dental plans to their employees than the employees would be able to get on their own.
Make Money Online Internet Marketing While Working at Home!
Poverty is no fun! Make Money Online using Google, Veretekk, Blastomatic, Leadsomatic and Free FFAS! Obtain Fantastic Health and Dental Plan at http://healthanddentalplan.org
Call Troy K. Preston at 804-355-7161
Why Employers Get The Best Dental Benefits
Employers are able to get the best dental benefits plans, because they are able to offer the insurance company higher premiums. This is because the employee pays a portion of the premium, and the rest is paid by the employer. When you multiply this by several employees, and with large corporations we are talking several thousand employees, the insurance company will be receiving high premiums each month. As a result, they often offer large corporations excellent rates on their insurance policies, because they know the overall contract will be large. This enables employers to offer better overall dental plans to their employees than the employees would be able to get on their own.
Make Money Online Internet Marketing While Working at Home!
Poverty is no fun! Make Money Online using Google, Veretekk, Blastomatic, Leadsomatic and Free FFAS! Obtain Fantastic Health and Dental Plan at http://healthanddentalplan.org
Call Troy K. Preston at 804-355-7161
Wednesday, July 23, 2008
Did You Know Plunging Hemlines are a Sign of Economic Depression?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/2308708/This-summer%27s-look%2C-share-plunge-hems.html
The onset of the credit crunch has coincided with the re-emergence of "cover-up" chic, with hemlines plummeting almost as much as share prices.
From Hollywood stars to footballers' wives, the floor-sweeping style of the maxi dress and full-length skirt has become the staple uniform.
The likes of Angelina Jolie, Coleen McLoughlin and Kylie Minogue have adopted the look reminiscent of the hippy chic of the 1970s, when the economy and hemlines last plunged in unison.
Fashion experts believe that the trend, which started on the catwalks and has now reached the high street, strengthens the theory that flush times mean higher hemlines, while the tightening of belts sends skirts to the floor.
Click on the above link to read more!
Make Money Online Internet Marketing While Working at Home!
Poverty is no fun! Make Money Online using Google, Veretekk, Blastomatic, Leadsomatic and Free FFAS! Obtain Fantastic Health and Dental Plan at http://healthanddentalplan.org
Call Troy K. Preston at 804-355-7161
The onset of the credit crunch has coincided with the re-emergence of "cover-up" chic, with hemlines plummeting almost as much as share prices.
From Hollywood stars to footballers' wives, the floor-sweeping style of the maxi dress and full-length skirt has become the staple uniform.
The likes of Angelina Jolie, Coleen McLoughlin and Kylie Minogue have adopted the look reminiscent of the hippy chic of the 1970s, when the economy and hemlines last plunged in unison.
Fashion experts believe that the trend, which started on the catwalks and has now reached the high street, strengthens the theory that flush times mean higher hemlines, while the tightening of belts sends skirts to the floor.
Click on the above link to read more!
Make Money Online Internet Marketing While Working at Home!
Poverty is no fun! Make Money Online using Google, Veretekk, Blastomatic, Leadsomatic and Free FFAS! Obtain Fantastic Health and Dental Plan at http://healthanddentalplan.org
Call Troy K. Preston at 804-355-7161
Tuesday, July 22, 2008
Reduce Your Hospital Bills by 80%
A few years back there was a fellow in our company who had a heart attack and had to go in for a quadruple bypass operation. He was in intensive care for a while and things were not looking good for some time. Miraculously, he survived and had a very good recovery. A problem was that he did not have traditional medical insurance. However, he had our medical discount and patient advocacy plan. Initially, his hospital bill were around $150,000 and we got 80 percent of that knocked off right away. The rest was put on a ten-year repayment plan. And this fellow was making $100,000 a year in our business selling these benefits packages. Can't beat that, can you?
I don't even carry traditional medical insurance anymore because I've found our discount and patient advocacy plan to be even better. Call me if you want to talk about it some more. I'm at 804-355-7161
Make Money Online Internet Marketing While Working at Home!
Poverty is no fun! Make Money Online using Google, Veretekk, Blastomatic, Leadsomatic and Free FFAS! Obtain Fantastic Health and Dental Plan at http://healthanddentalplan.org
I don't even carry traditional medical insurance anymore because I've found our discount and patient advocacy plan to be even better. Call me if you want to talk about it some more. I'm at 804-355-7161
Make Money Online Internet Marketing While Working at Home!
Poverty is no fun! Make Money Online using Google, Veretekk, Blastomatic, Leadsomatic and Free FFAS! Obtain Fantastic Health and Dental Plan at http://healthanddentalplan.org
Monday, July 21, 2008
What You Get When You Join Our Team
When you join our team of network and internet marketing entrepreneurs, you learn how to make money online marketing fantastic dental and health benefits packages along with tools for developing a successful online business. However, you also get the benefit of guidance from our group of specialists and trainers in such areas as the use of video in internet marketing, search engine optimization, recruiting downline by internet and by telephone, computer skills and technology, blogging, mass emailing, website construction, placing ads online and much, much more.
Take advantage of our comprehensive system. Just give me a call at 804-355-7161.
Make Money Online Internet Marketing While Working at Home!
Poverty is no fun! Make Money Online using Google, Veretekk, Blastomatic, Leadsomatic and Free FFAS! Obtain Fantastic Health and Dental Plan at http://healthanddentalplan.org
Take advantage of our comprehensive system. Just give me a call at 804-355-7161.
Make Money Online Internet Marketing While Working at Home!
Poverty is no fun! Make Money Online using Google, Veretekk, Blastomatic, Leadsomatic and Free FFAS! Obtain Fantastic Health and Dental Plan at http://healthanddentalplan.org
Get Your Home-Based Business in Step with the 21st Century
If you are working at home and trying to make money online through internet marketing, you need the right tools. A lot of network marketing professionals still use the old tools like weekly meetings, warm lists, newspaper ads, sizzle cards or purchasing those crummy internet leads.
That's not enough in today's economy and in the current world of technology. You need to be able to do mass emailings, blast out ads to hundreds of sites daily and bring in thousands of leads everyday. Now you can do this for only token overhead costs through systems like Veretekk, Blastomatic or Leadsomatic. For instance, how would you like to generated free leads for life? Now you can. Call my office at 804-355-7161 and I'll show you how.
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That's not enough in today's economy and in the current world of technology. You need to be able to do mass emailings, blast out ads to hundreds of sites daily and bring in thousands of leads everyday. Now you can do this for only token overhead costs through systems like Veretekk, Blastomatic or Leadsomatic. For instance, how would you like to generated free leads for life? Now you can. Call my office at 804-355-7161 and I'll show you how.
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Saturday, July 19, 2008
Dental Benefits Are Wonderful!
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Search Engine Optimization
If you're in the field of internet marketing, you know the importance of search engine optimization. Veretekk can provide you with some amazing tools of unbelievable quality for increasing your ranking with search systems like Google and Yahoo. Check out this website:
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and then call me on my office line at 804-355-7161
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We're In a World Economic Crisis: Can Economic Depressions Be Cured?
The late economic historian Murray N. Rothbard was a major influence on the development of my understanding of political economy and monetary theory. He had some complex and interesting, if not thoroughly tested, ideas on how to prevent depressions. Here's one of his articles on the subject:
Economic Depressions: Their Cause and Cure
by Murray N. Rothbard
We live in a world of euphemism. Undertakers have become "morticians," press agents are now "public relations counsellors" and janitors have all been transformed into "superintendents." In every walk of life, plain facts have been wrapped in cloudy camouflage.
No less has this been true of economics. In the old days, we used to suffer nearly periodic economic crises, the sudden onset of which was called a "panic," and the lingering trough period after the panic was called "depression."
The most famous depression in modern times, of course, was the one that began in a typical financial panic in 1929 and lasted until the advent of World War II. After the disaster of 1929, economists and politicians resolved that this must never happen again. The easiest way of succeeding at this resolve was, simply to define "depressions" out of existence. From that point on, America was to suffer no further depressions. For when the next sharp depression came along, in 1937-38, the economists simply refused to use the dread name, and came up with a new, much softer-sounding word: "recession." From that point on, we have been through quite a few recessions, but not a single depression.
But pretty soon the word "recession" also became too harsh for the delicate sensibilities of the American public. It now seems that we had our last recession in 1957-58. For since then, we have only had "downturns," or, even better, "slowdowns," or "sidewise movements." So be of good cheer; from now on, depressions and even recessions have been outlawed by the semantic fiat of economists; from now on, the worst that can possibly happen to us are "slowdowns." Such are the wonders of the "New Economics."
For 30 years, our nation's economists have adopted the view of the business cycle held by the late British economist, John Maynard Keynes, who created the Keynesian, or the "New," Economics in his book, The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money, published in 1936. Beneath their diagrams, mathematics, and inchoate jargon, the attitude of Keynesians toward booms and bust is simplicity, even naivete, itself. If there is inflation, then the cause is supposed to be "excessive spending" on the part of the public; the alleged cure is for the government, the self-appointed stabilizer and regulator of the nation's economy, to step in and force people to spend less, "sopping up their excess purchasing power" through increased taxation. If there is a recession, on the other hand, this has been caused by insufficient private spending, and the cure now is for the government to increase its own spending, preferably through deficits, thereby adding to the nation's aggregate spending stream.
The idea that increased government spending or easy money is "good for business" and that budget cuts or harder money is "bad" permeates even the most conservative newspapers and magazines. These journals will also take for granted that it is the sacred task of the federal government to steer the economic system on the narrow road between the abysses of depression on the one hand and inflation on the other, for the free-market economy is supposed to be ever liable to succumb to one of these evils.
All current schools of economists have the same attitude. Note, for example, the viewpoint of Dr. Paul W. McCracken, the incoming chairman of President Nixon's Council of Economic Advisers. In an interview with the New York Times shortly after taking office [January 24, 1969], Dr. McCracken asserted that one of the major economic problems facing the new Administration is "how you cool down this inflationary economy without at the same time tripping off unacceptably high levels of unemployment. In other words, if the only thing we want to do is cool off the inflation, it could be done. But our social tolerances on unemployment are narrow." And again: "I think we have to feel our way along here. We don't really have much experience in trying to cool an economy in orderly fashion. We slammed on the brakes in 1957, but, of course, we got substantial slack in the economy."
Note the fundamental attitude of Dr. McCracken toward the economy – remarkable only in that it is shared by almost all economists of the present day. The economy is treated as a potentially workable, but always troublesome and recalcitrant patient, with a continual tendency to hive off into greater inflation or unemployment. The function of the government is to be the wise old manager and physician, ever watchful, ever tinkering to keep the economic patient in good working order. In any case, here the economic patient is clearly supposed to be the subject, and the government as "physician" the master.
It was not so long ago that this kind of attitude and policy was called "socialism"; but we live in a world of euphemism, and now we call it by far less harsh labels, such as "moderation" or "enlightened free enterprise." We live and learn.
What, then, are the causes of periodic depressions? Must we always remain agnostic about the causes of booms and busts? Is it really true that business cycles are rooted deep within the free-market economy, and that therefore some form of government planning is needed if we wish to keep the economy within some kind of stable bounds? Do booms and then busts just simply happen, or does one phase of the cycle flow logically from the other?
The currently fashionable attitude toward the business cycle stems, actually, from Karl Marx. Marx saw that, before the Industrial Revolution in approximately the late eighteenth century, there were no regularly recurring booms and depressions. There would be a sudden economic crisis whenever some king made war or confiscated the property of his subject; but there was no sign of the peculiarly modern phenomena of general and fairly regular swings in business fortunes, of expansions and contractions. Since these cycles also appeared on the scene at about the same time as modern industry, Marx concluded that business cycles were an inherent feature of the capitalist market economy. All the various current schools of economic thought, regardless of their other differences and the different causes that they attribute to the cycle, agree on this vital point: That these business cycles originate somewhere deep within the free-market economy. The market economy is to blame. Karl Marx believed that the periodic depressions would get worse and worse, until the masses would be moved to revolt and destroy the system, while the modern economists believe that the government can successfully stabilize depressions and the cycle. But all parties agree that the fault lies deep within the market economy and that if anything can save the day, it must be some form of massive government intervention.
There are, however, some critical problems in the assumption that the market economy is the culprit. For "general economic theory" teaches us that supply and demand always tend to be in equilibrium in the market and that therefore prices of products as well as of the factors that contribute to production are always tending toward some equilibrium point. Even though changes of data, which are always taking place, prevent equilibrium from ever being reached, there is nothing in the general theory of the market system that would account for regular and recurring boom-and-bust phases of the business cycle. Modern economists "solve" this problem by simply keeping their general price and market theory and their business cycle theory in separate, tightly-sealed compartments, with never the twain meeting, much less integrated with each other. Economists, unfortunately, have forgotten that there is only one economy and therefore only one integrated economic theory. Neither economic life nor the structure of theory can or should be in watertight compartments; our knowledge of the economy is either one integrated whole or it is nothing. Yet most economists are content to apply totally separate and, indeed, mutually exclusive, theories for general price analysis and for business cycles. They cannot be genuine economic scientists so long as they are content to keep operating in this primitive way.
But there are still graver problems with the currently fashionable approach. Economists also do not see one particularly critical problem because they do not bother to square their business cycle and general price theories: the peculiar breakdown of the entrepreneurial function at times of economic crisis and depression. In the market economy, one of the most vital functions of the businessman is to be an "entrepreneur," a man who invests in productive methods, who buys equipment and hires labor to produce something which he is not sure will reap him any return. In short, the entrepreneurial function is the function of forecasting the uncertain future. Before embarking on any investment or line of production, the entrepreneur, or "enterpriser," must estimate present and future costs and future revenues and therefore estimate whether and how much profits he will earn from the investment. If he forecasts well and significantly better than his business competitors, he will reap profits from his investment. The better his forecasting, the higher the profits he will earn. If, on the other hand, he is a poor forecaster and overestimates the demand for his product, he will suffer losses and pretty soon be forced out of the business.
The market economy, then, is a profit-and-loss economy, in which the acumen and ability of business entrepreneurs is gauged by the profits and losses they reap. The market economy, moreover, contains a built-in mechanism, a kind of natural selection, that ensures the survival and the flourishing of the superior forecaster and the weeding-out of the inferior ones. For the more profits reaped by the better forecasters, the greater become their business responsibilities, and the more they will have available to invest in the productive system. On the other hand, a few years of making losses will drive the poorer forecasters and entrepreneurs out of business altogether and push them into the ranks of salaried employees.
If, then, the market economy has a built-in natural selection mechanism for good entrepreneurs, this means that, generally, we would expect not many business firms to be making losses. And, in fact, if we look around at the economy on an average day or year, we will find that losses are not very widespread. But, in that case, the odd fact that needs explaining is this: How is it that, periodically, in times of the onset of recessions and especially in steep depressions, the business world suddenly experiences a massive cluster of severe losses? A moment arrives when business firms, previously highly astute entrepreneurs in their ability to make profits and avoid losses, suddenly and dismayingly find themselves, almost all of them, suffering severe and unaccountable losses – How come? Here is a momentous fact that any theory of depressions must explain. An explanation such as "underconsumption" – a drop in total consumer spending – is not sufficient, for one thing, because what needs to be explained is why businessmen, able to forecast all manner of previous economic changes and developments, proved themselves totally and catastrophically unable to forecast this alleged drop in consumer demand. Why this sudden failure in forecasting ability?
An adequate theory of depressions, then, must account for the tendency of the economy to move through successive booms and busts, showing no sign of settling into any sort of smoothly moving, or quietly progressive, approximation of an equilibrium situation. In particular, a theory of depression must account for the mammoth cluster of errors which appears swiftly and suddenly at a moment of economic crisis, and lingers through the depression period until recovery. And there is a third universal fact that a theory of the cycle must account for. Invariably, the booms and busts are much more intense and severe in the "capital goods industries" – the industries making machines and equipment, the ones producing industrial raw materials or constructing industrial plants – than in the industries making consumers' goods. Here is another fact of business cycle life that must be explained – and obviously can't be explained by such theories of depression as the popular underconsumption doctrine: That consumers aren't spending enough on consumer goods. For if insufficient spending is the culprit, then how is it that retail sales are the last and the least to fall in any depression, and that depression really hits such industries as machine tools, capital equipment, construction, and raw materials? Conversely, it is these industries that really take off in the inflationary boom phases of the business cycle, and not those businesses serving the consumer. An adequate theory of the business cycle, then, must also explain the far greater intensity of booms and busts in the non-consumer goods, or "producers' goods," industries.
Fortunately, a correct theory of depression and of the business cycle does exist, even though it is universally neglected in present-day economics. It, too, has a long tradition in economic thought. This theory began with the eighteenth century Scottish philosopher and economist David Hume, and with the eminent early nineteenth century English classical economist David Ricardo. Essentially, these theorists saw that another crucial institution had developed in the mid-eighteenth century, alongside the industrial system. This was the institution of banking, with its capacity to expand credit and the money supply (first, in the form of paper money, or bank notes, and later in the form of demand deposits, or checking accounts, that are instantly redeemable in cash at the banks). It was the operations of these commercial banks which, these economists saw, held the key to the mysterious recurrent cycles of expansion and contraction, of boom and bust, that had puzzled observers since the mid-eighteenth century.
The Ricardian analysis of the business cycle went something as follows: The natural moneys emerging as such on the world free market are useful commodities, generally gold and silver. If money were confined simply to these commodities, then the economy would work in the aggregate as it does in particular markets: A smooth adjustment of supply and demand, and therefore no cycles of boom and bust. But the injection of bank credit adds another crucial and disruptive element. For the banks expand credit and therefore bank money in the form of notes or deposits which are theoretically redeemable on demand in gold, but in practice clearly are not. For example, if a bank has 1000 ounces of gold in its vaults, and it issues instantly redeemable warehouse receipts for 2500 ounces of gold, then it clearly has issued 1500 ounces more than it can possibly redeem. But so long as there is no concerted "run" on the bank to cash in these receipts, its warehouse-receipts function on the market as equivalent to gold, and therefore the bank has been able to expand the money supply of the country by 1500 gold ounces.
The banks, then, happily begin to expand credit, for the more they expand credit the greater will be their profits. This results in the expansion of the money supply within a country, say England. As the supply of paper and bank money in England increases, the money incomes and expenditures of Englishmen rise, and the increased money bids up prices of English goods. The result is inflation and a boom within the country. But this inflationary boom, while it proceeds on its merry way, sows the seeds of its own demise. For as English money supply and incomes increase, Englishmen proceed to purchase more goods from abroad. Furthermore, as English prices go up, English goods begin to lose their competitiveness with the products of other countries which have not inflated, or have been inflating to a lesser degree. Englishmen begin to buy less at home and more abroad, while foreigners buy less in England and more at home; the result is a deficit in the English balance of payments, with English exports falling sharply behind imports. But if imports exceed exports, this means that money must flow out of England to foreign countries. And what money will this be? Surely not English bank notes or deposits, for Frenchmen or Germans or Italians have little or no interest in keeping their funds locked up in English banks. These foreigners will therefore take their bank notes and deposits and present them to the English banks for redemption in gold – and gold will be the type of money that will tend to flow persistently out of the country as the English inflation proceeds on its way. But this means that English bank credit money will be, more and more, pyramiding on top of a dwindling gold base in the English bank vaults. As the boom proceeds, our hypothetical bank will expand its warehouse receipts issued from, say 2500 ounces to 4000 ounces, while its gold base dwindles to, say, 800. As this process intensifies, the banks will eventually become frightened. For the banks, after all, are obligated to redeem their liabilities in cash, and their cash is flowing out rapidly as their liabilities pile up. Hence, the banks will eventually lose their nerve, stop their credit expansion, and in order to save themselves, contract their bank loans outstanding. Often, this retreat is precipitated by bankrupting runs on the banks touched off by the public, who had also been getting increasingly nervous about the ever more shaky condition of the nation's banks.
The bank contraction reverses the economic picture; contraction and bust follow boom. The banks pull in their horns, and businesses suffer as the pressure mounts for debt repayment and contraction. The fall in the supply of bank money, in turn, leads to a general fall in English prices. As money supply and incomes fall, and English prices collapse, English goods become relatively more attractive in terms of foreign products, and the balance of payments reverses itself, with exports exceeding imports. As gold flows into the country, and as bank money contracts on top of an expanding gold base, the condition of the banks becomes much sounder.
This, then, is the meaning of the depression phase of the business cycle. Note that it is a phase that comes out of, and inevitably comes out of, the preceding expansionary boom. It is the preceding inflation that makes the depression phase necessary. We can see, for example, that the depression is the process by which the market economy adjusts, throws off the excesses and distortions of the previous inflationary boom, and reestablishes a sound economic condition. The depression is the unpleasant but necessary reaction to the distortions and excesses of the previous boom.
Why, then, does the next cycle begin? Why do business cycles tend to be recurrent and continuous? Because when the banks have pretty well recovered, and are in a sounder condition, they are then in a confident position to proceed to their natural path of bank credit expansion, and the next boom proceeds on its way, sowing the seeds for the next inevitable bust.
But if banking is the cause of the business cycle, aren't the banks also a part of the private market economy, and can't we therefore say that the free market is still the culprit, if only in the banking segment of that free market? The answer is No, for the banks, for one thing, would never be able to expand credit in concert were it not for the intervention and encouragement of government. For if banks were truly competitive, any expansion of credit by one bank would quickly pile up the debts of that bank in its competitors, and its competitors would quickly call upon the expanding bank for redemption in cash. In short, a bank's rivals will call upon it for redemption in gold or cash in the same way as do foreigners, except that the process is much faster and would nip any incipient inflation in the bud before it got started. Banks can only expand comfortably in unison when a Central Bank exists, essentially a governmental bank, enjoying a monopoly of government business, and a privileged position imposed by government over the entire banking system. It is only when central banking got established that the banks were able to expand for any length of time and the familiar business cycle got underway in the modern world.
The central bank acquires its control over the banking system by such governmental measures as: Making its own liabilities legal tender for all debts and receivable in taxes; granting the central bank monopoly of the issue of bank notes, as contrasted to deposits (in England the Bank of England, the governmentally established central bank, had a legal monopoly of bank notes in the London area); or through the outright forcing of banks to use the central bank as their client for keeping their reserves of cash (as in the United States and its Federal Reserve System). Not that the banks complain about this intervention; for it is the establishment of central banking that makes long-term bank credit expansion possible, since the expansion of Central Bank notes provides added cash reserves for the entire banking system and permits all the commercial banks to expand their credit together. Central banking works like a cozy compulsory bank cartel to expand the banks' liabilities; and the banks are now able to expand on a larger base of cash in the form of central bank notes as well as gold.
So now we see, at last, that the business cycle is brought about, not by any mysterious failings of the free market economy, but quite the opposite: By systematic intervention by government in the market process. Government intervention brings about bank expansion and inflation, and, when the inflation comes to an end, the subsequent depression-adjustment comes into play.
The Ricardian theory of the business cycle grasped the essentials of a correct cycle theory: The recurrent nature of the phases of the cycle, depression as adjustment intervention in the market rather than from the free-market economy. But two problems were as yet unexplained: Why the sudden cluster of business error, the sudden failure of the entrepreneurial function, and why the vastly greater fluctuations in the producers' goods than in the consumers' goods industries? The Ricardian theory only explained movements in the price level, in general business; there was no hint of explanation of the vastly different reactions in the capital and consumers' goods industries.
The correct and fully developed theory of the business cycle was finally discovered and set forth by the Austrian economist Ludwig von Mises, when he was a professor at the University of Vienna. Mises developed hints of his solution to the vital problem of the business cycle in his monumental Theory of Money and Credit, published in 1912, and still, nearly 60 years later, the best book on the theory of money and banking. Mises developed his cycle theory during the 1920s, and it was brought to the English-speaking world by Mises's leading follower, Friedrich A. von Hayek, who came from Vienna to teach at the London School of Economics in the early 1930s, and who published, in German and in English, two books which applied and elaborated the Mises cycle theory: Monetary Theory and the Trade Cycle, and Prices and Production. Since Mises and Hayek were Austrians, and also since they were in the tradition of the great nineteenth-century Austrian economists, this theory has become known in the literature as the "Austrian" (or the "monetary over-investment") theory of the business cycle.
Building on the Ricardians, on general "Austrian" theory, and on his own creative genius, Mises developed the following theory of the business cycle:
Without bank credit expansion, supply and demand tend to be equilibrated through the free price system, and no cumulative booms or busts can then develop. But then government through its central bank stimulates bank credit expansion by expanding central bank liabilities and therefore the cash reserves of all the nation's commercial banks. The banks then proceed to expand credit and hence the nation's money supply in the form of check deposits. As the Ricardians saw, this expansion of bank money drives up the prices of goods and hence causes inflation. But, Mises showed, it does something else, and something even more sinister. Bank credit expansion, by pouring new loan funds into the business world, artificially lowers the rate of interest in the economy below its free market level.
On the free and unhampered market, the interest rate is determined purely by the "time-preferences" of all the individuals that make up the market economy. For the essence of a loan is that a "present good" (money which can be used at present) is being exchanged for a "future good" (an IOU which can only be used at some point in the future). Since people always prefer money right now to the present prospect of getting the same amount of money some time in the future, the present good always commands a premium in the market over the future. This premium is the interest rate, and its height will vary according to the degree to which people prefer the present to the future, i.e., the degree of their time-preferences.
People's time-preferences also determine the extent to which people will save and invest, as compared to how much they will consume. If people's time-preferences should fall, i.e., if their degree of preference for present over future falls, then people will tend to consume less now and save and invest more; at the same time, and for the same reason, the rate of interest, the rate of time-discount, will also fall. Economic growth comes about largely as the result of falling rates of time-preference, which lead to an increase in the proportion of saving and investment to consumption, and also to a falling rate of interest.
But what happens when the rate of interest falls, not because of lower time-preferences and higher savings, but from government interference that promotes the expansion of bank credit? In other words, if the rate of interest falls artificially, due to intervention, rather than naturally, as a result of changes in the valuations and preferences of the consuming public?
What happens is trouble. For businessmen, seeing the rate of interest fall, react as they always would and must to such a change of market signals: They invest more in capital and producers' goods. Investments, particularly in lengthy and time-consuming projects, which previously looked unprofitable now seem profitable, because of the fall of the interest charge. In short, businessmen react as they would react if savings had genuinely increased: They expand their investment in durable equipment, in capital goods, in industrial raw material, in construction as compared to their direct production of consumer goods.
Businesses, in short, happily borrow the newly expanded bank money that is coming to them at cheaper rates; they use the money to invest in capital goods, and eventually this money gets paid out in higher rents to land, and higher wages to workers in the capital goods industries. The increased business demand bids up labor costs, but businesses think they can pay these higher costs because they have been fooled by the government-and-bank intervention in the loan market and its decisively important tampering with the interest-rate signal of the marketplace.
The problem comes as soon as the workers and landlords – largely the former, since most gross business income is paid out in wages – begin to spend the new bank money that they have received in the form of higher wages. For the time-preferences of the public have not really gotten lower; the public doesn't want to save more than it has. So the workers set about to consume most of their new income, in short to reestablish the old consumer/saving proportions. This means that they redirect the spending back to the consumer goods industries, and they don't save and invest enough to buy the newly-produced machines, capital equipment, industrial raw materials, etc. This all reveals itself as a sudden sharp and continuing depression in the producers' goods industries. Once the consumers reestablished their desired consumption/investment proportions, it is thus revealed that business had invested too much in capital goods and had underinvested in consumer goods. Business had been seduced by the governmental tampering and artificial lowering of the rate of interest, and acted as if more savings were available to invest than were really there. As soon as the new bank money filtered through the system and the consumers reestablished their old proportions, it became clear that there were not enough savings to buy all the producers' goods, and that business had misinvested the limited savings available. Business had overinvested in capital goods and underinvested in consumer products.
The inflationary boom thus leads to distortions of the pricing and production system. Prices of labor and raw materials in the capital goods industries had been bid up during the boom too high to be profitable once the consumers reassert their old consumption/investment preferences. The "depression" is then seen as the necessary and healthy phase by which the market economy sloughs off and liquidates the unsound, uneconomic investments of the boom, and reestablishes those proportions between consumption and investment that are truly desired by the consumers. The depression is the painful but necessary process by which the free market sloughs off the excesses and errors of the boom and reestablishes the market economy in its function of efficient service to the mass of consumers. Since prices of factors of production have been bid too high in the boom, this means that prices of labor and goods in these capital goods industries must be allowed to fall until proper market relations are resumed.
Since the workers receive the increased money in the form of higher wages fairly rapidly, how is it that booms can go on for years without having their unsound investments revealed, their errors due to tampering with market signals become evident, and the depression-adjustment process begins its work? The answer is that booms would be very short lived if the bank credit expansion and subsequent pushing of the rate of interest below the free market level were a one-shot affair. But the point is that the credit expansion is not one-shot; it proceeds on and on, never giving consumers the chance to reestablish their preferred proportions of consumption and saving, never allowing the rise in costs in the capital goods industries to catch up to the inflationary rise in prices. Like the repeated doping of a horse, the boom is kept on its way and ahead of its inevitable comeuppance, by repeated doses of the stimulant of bank credit. It is only when bank credit expansion must finally stop, either because the banks are getting into a shaky condition or because the public begins to balk at the continuing inflation, that retribution finally catches up with the boom. As soon as credit expansion stops, then the piper must be paid, and the inevitable readjustments liquidate the unsound over-investments of the boom, with the reassertion of a greater proportionate emphasis on consumers' goods production.
Thus, the Misesian theory of the business cycle accounts for all of our puzzles: The repeated and recurrent nature of the cycle, the massive cluster of entrepreneurial error, the far greater intensity of the boom and bust in the producers' goods industries.
Mises, then, pinpoints the blame for the cycle on inflationary bank credit expansion propelled by the intervention of government and its central bank. What does Mises say should be done, say by government, once the depression arrives? What is the governmental role in the cure of depression? In the first place, government must cease inflating as soon as possible. It is true that this will, inevitably, bring the inflationary boom abruptly to an end, and commence the inevitable recession or depression. But the longer the government waits for this, the worse the necessary readjustments will have to be. The sooner the depression-readjustment is gotten over with, the better. This means, also, that the government must never try to prop up unsound business situations; it must never bail out or lend money to business firms in trouble. Doing this will simply prolong the agony and convert a sharp and quick depression phase into a lingering and chronic disease. The government must never try to prop up wage rates or prices of producers' goods; doing so will prolong and delay indefinitely the completion of the depression-adjustment process; it will cause indefinite and prolonged depression and mass unemployment in the vital capital goods industries. The government must not try to inflate again, in order to get out of the depression. For even if this reinflation succeeds, it will only sow greater trouble later on. The government must do nothing to encourage consumption, and it must not increase its own expenditures, for this will further increase the social consumption/investment ratio. In fact, cutting the government budget will improve the ratio. What the economy needs is not more consumption spending but more saving, in order to validate some of the excessive investments of the boom.
Thus, what the government should do, according to the Misesian analysis of the depression, is absolutely nothing. It should, from the point of view of economic health and ending the depression as quickly as possible, maintain a strict hands off, "laissez-faire" policy. Anything it does will delay and obstruct the adjustment process of the market; the less it does, the more rapidly will the market adjustment process do its work, and sound economic recovery ensue.
The Misesian prescription is thus the exact opposite of the Keynesian: It is for the government to keep absolute hands off the economy and to confine itself to stopping its own inflation and to cutting its own budget.
It has today been completely forgotten, even among economists, that the Misesian explanation and analysis of the depression gained great headway precisely during the Great Depression of the 1930s – the very depression that is always held up to advocates of the free market economy as the greatest single and catastrophic failure of laissez-faire capitalism. It was no such thing. 1929 was made inevitable by the vast bank credit expansion throughout the Western world during the 1920s: A policy deliberately adopted by the Western governments, and most importantly by the Federal Reserve System in the United States. It was made possible by the failure of the Western world to return to a genuine gold standard after World War I, and thus allowing more room for inflationary policies by government. Everyone now thinks of President Coolidge as a believer in laissez-faire and an unhampered market economy; he was not, and tragically, nowhere less so than in the field of money and credit. Unfortunately, the sins and errors of the Coolidge intervention were laid to the door of a non-existent free market economy.
If Coolidge made 1929 inevitable, it was President Hoover who prolonged and deepened the depression, transforming it from a typically sharp but swiftly-disappearing depression into a lingering and near-fatal malady, a malady "cured" only by the holocaust of World War II. Hoover, not Franklin Roosevelt, was the founder of the policy of the "New Deal": essentially the massive use of the State to do exactly what Misesian theory would most warn against – to prop up wage rates above their free-market levels, prop up prices, inflate credit, and lend money to shaky business positions. Roosevelt only advanced, to a greater degree, what Hoover had pioneered. The result for the first time in American history, was a nearly perpetual depression and nearly permanent mass unemployment. The Coolidge crisis had become the unprecedentedly prolonged Hoover-Roosevelt depression.
Ludwig von Mises had predicted the depression during the heyday of the great boom of the 1920s – a time, just like today, when economists and politicians, armed with a "new economics" of perpetual inflation, and with new "tools" provided by the Federal Reserve System, proclaimed a perpetual "New Era" of permanent prosperity guaranteed by our wise economic doctors in Washington. Ludwig von Mises, alone armed with a correct theory of the business cycle, was one of the very few economists to predict the Great Depression, and hence the economic world was forced to listen to him with respect. F. A. Hayek spread the word in England, and the younger English economists were all, in the early 1930s, beginning to adopt the Misesian cycle theory for their analysis of the depression – and also to adopt, of course, the strictly free-market policy prescription that flowed with this theory. Unfortunately, economists have now adopted the historical notion of Lord Keynes: That no "classical economists" had a theory of the business cycle until Keynes came along in 1936. There was a theory of the depression; it was the classical economic tradition; its prescription was strict hard money and laissez-faire; and it was rapidly being adopted, in England and even in the United States, as the accepted theory of the business cycle. (A particular irony is that the major "Austrian" proponent in the United States in the early and mid-1930s was none other than Professor Alvin Hansen, very soon to make his mark as the outstanding Keynesian disciple in this country.)
What swamped the growing acceptance of Misesian cycle theory was simply the "Keynesian Revolution" – the amazing sweep that Keynesian theory made of the economic world shortly after the publication of the General Theory in 1936. It is not that Misesian theory was refuted successfully; it was just forgotten in the rush to climb on the suddenly fashionable Keynesian bandwagon. Some of the leading adherents of the Mises theory – who clearly knew better – succumbed to the newly established winds of doctrine, and won leading American university posts as a consequence.
But now the once arch-Keynesian London Economist has recently proclaimed that "Keynes is Dead." After over a decade of facing trenchant theoretical critiques and refutation by stubborn economic facts, the Keynesians are now in general and massive retreat. Once again, the money supply and bank credit are being grudgingly acknowledged to play a leading role in the cycle. The time is ripe – for a rediscovery, a renaissance, of the Mises theory of the business cycle. It can come none too soon; if it ever does, the whole concept of a Council of Economic Advisors would be swept away, and we would see a massive retreat of government from the economic sphere. But for all this to happen, the world of economics, and the public at large, must be made aware of the existence of an explanation of the business cycle that has lain neglected on the shelf for all too many tragic years.
This essay was originally published as a minibook by the Constitutional Alliance of Lansing, Michigan, 1969.
Murray N. Rothbard (1926–1995) was the author of Man, Economy, and State, Conceived in Liberty, What Has Government Done to Our Money, For a New Liberty, The Case Against the Fed, and many other books and articles. He was also the editor – with Lew Rockwell – of The Rothbard-Rockwell Report, and academic vice president of the Ludwig von Mises Institute.
Copyright © 2008 Ludwig von Mises Institute
All rights reserved.
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Economic Depressions: Their Cause and Cure
by Murray N. Rothbard
We live in a world of euphemism. Undertakers have become "morticians," press agents are now "public relations counsellors" and janitors have all been transformed into "superintendents." In every walk of life, plain facts have been wrapped in cloudy camouflage.
No less has this been true of economics. In the old days, we used to suffer nearly periodic economic crises, the sudden onset of which was called a "panic," and the lingering trough period after the panic was called "depression."
The most famous depression in modern times, of course, was the one that began in a typical financial panic in 1929 and lasted until the advent of World War II. After the disaster of 1929, economists and politicians resolved that this must never happen again. The easiest way of succeeding at this resolve was, simply to define "depressions" out of existence. From that point on, America was to suffer no further depressions. For when the next sharp depression came along, in 1937-38, the economists simply refused to use the dread name, and came up with a new, much softer-sounding word: "recession." From that point on, we have been through quite a few recessions, but not a single depression.
But pretty soon the word "recession" also became too harsh for the delicate sensibilities of the American public. It now seems that we had our last recession in 1957-58. For since then, we have only had "downturns," or, even better, "slowdowns," or "sidewise movements." So be of good cheer; from now on, depressions and even recessions have been outlawed by the semantic fiat of economists; from now on, the worst that can possibly happen to us are "slowdowns." Such are the wonders of the "New Economics."
For 30 years, our nation's economists have adopted the view of the business cycle held by the late British economist, John Maynard Keynes, who created the Keynesian, or the "New," Economics in his book, The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money, published in 1936. Beneath their diagrams, mathematics, and inchoate jargon, the attitude of Keynesians toward booms and bust is simplicity, even naivete, itself. If there is inflation, then the cause is supposed to be "excessive spending" on the part of the public; the alleged cure is for the government, the self-appointed stabilizer and regulator of the nation's economy, to step in and force people to spend less, "sopping up their excess purchasing power" through increased taxation. If there is a recession, on the other hand, this has been caused by insufficient private spending, and the cure now is for the government to increase its own spending, preferably through deficits, thereby adding to the nation's aggregate spending stream.
The idea that increased government spending or easy money is "good for business" and that budget cuts or harder money is "bad" permeates even the most conservative newspapers and magazines. These journals will also take for granted that it is the sacred task of the federal government to steer the economic system on the narrow road between the abysses of depression on the one hand and inflation on the other, for the free-market economy is supposed to be ever liable to succumb to one of these evils.
All current schools of economists have the same attitude. Note, for example, the viewpoint of Dr. Paul W. McCracken, the incoming chairman of President Nixon's Council of Economic Advisers. In an interview with the New York Times shortly after taking office [January 24, 1969], Dr. McCracken asserted that one of the major economic problems facing the new Administration is "how you cool down this inflationary economy without at the same time tripping off unacceptably high levels of unemployment. In other words, if the only thing we want to do is cool off the inflation, it could be done. But our social tolerances on unemployment are narrow." And again: "I think we have to feel our way along here. We don't really have much experience in trying to cool an economy in orderly fashion. We slammed on the brakes in 1957, but, of course, we got substantial slack in the economy."
Note the fundamental attitude of Dr. McCracken toward the economy – remarkable only in that it is shared by almost all economists of the present day. The economy is treated as a potentially workable, but always troublesome and recalcitrant patient, with a continual tendency to hive off into greater inflation or unemployment. The function of the government is to be the wise old manager and physician, ever watchful, ever tinkering to keep the economic patient in good working order. In any case, here the economic patient is clearly supposed to be the subject, and the government as "physician" the master.
It was not so long ago that this kind of attitude and policy was called "socialism"; but we live in a world of euphemism, and now we call it by far less harsh labels, such as "moderation" or "enlightened free enterprise." We live and learn.
What, then, are the causes of periodic depressions? Must we always remain agnostic about the causes of booms and busts? Is it really true that business cycles are rooted deep within the free-market economy, and that therefore some form of government planning is needed if we wish to keep the economy within some kind of stable bounds? Do booms and then busts just simply happen, or does one phase of the cycle flow logically from the other?
The currently fashionable attitude toward the business cycle stems, actually, from Karl Marx. Marx saw that, before the Industrial Revolution in approximately the late eighteenth century, there were no regularly recurring booms and depressions. There would be a sudden economic crisis whenever some king made war or confiscated the property of his subject; but there was no sign of the peculiarly modern phenomena of general and fairly regular swings in business fortunes, of expansions and contractions. Since these cycles also appeared on the scene at about the same time as modern industry, Marx concluded that business cycles were an inherent feature of the capitalist market economy. All the various current schools of economic thought, regardless of their other differences and the different causes that they attribute to the cycle, agree on this vital point: That these business cycles originate somewhere deep within the free-market economy. The market economy is to blame. Karl Marx believed that the periodic depressions would get worse and worse, until the masses would be moved to revolt and destroy the system, while the modern economists believe that the government can successfully stabilize depressions and the cycle. But all parties agree that the fault lies deep within the market economy and that if anything can save the day, it must be some form of massive government intervention.
There are, however, some critical problems in the assumption that the market economy is the culprit. For "general economic theory" teaches us that supply and demand always tend to be in equilibrium in the market and that therefore prices of products as well as of the factors that contribute to production are always tending toward some equilibrium point. Even though changes of data, which are always taking place, prevent equilibrium from ever being reached, there is nothing in the general theory of the market system that would account for regular and recurring boom-and-bust phases of the business cycle. Modern economists "solve" this problem by simply keeping their general price and market theory and their business cycle theory in separate, tightly-sealed compartments, with never the twain meeting, much less integrated with each other. Economists, unfortunately, have forgotten that there is only one economy and therefore only one integrated economic theory. Neither economic life nor the structure of theory can or should be in watertight compartments; our knowledge of the economy is either one integrated whole or it is nothing. Yet most economists are content to apply totally separate and, indeed, mutually exclusive, theories for general price analysis and for business cycles. They cannot be genuine economic scientists so long as they are content to keep operating in this primitive way.
But there are still graver problems with the currently fashionable approach. Economists also do not see one particularly critical problem because they do not bother to square their business cycle and general price theories: the peculiar breakdown of the entrepreneurial function at times of economic crisis and depression. In the market economy, one of the most vital functions of the businessman is to be an "entrepreneur," a man who invests in productive methods, who buys equipment and hires labor to produce something which he is not sure will reap him any return. In short, the entrepreneurial function is the function of forecasting the uncertain future. Before embarking on any investment or line of production, the entrepreneur, or "enterpriser," must estimate present and future costs and future revenues and therefore estimate whether and how much profits he will earn from the investment. If he forecasts well and significantly better than his business competitors, he will reap profits from his investment. The better his forecasting, the higher the profits he will earn. If, on the other hand, he is a poor forecaster and overestimates the demand for his product, he will suffer losses and pretty soon be forced out of the business.
The market economy, then, is a profit-and-loss economy, in which the acumen and ability of business entrepreneurs is gauged by the profits and losses they reap. The market economy, moreover, contains a built-in mechanism, a kind of natural selection, that ensures the survival and the flourishing of the superior forecaster and the weeding-out of the inferior ones. For the more profits reaped by the better forecasters, the greater become their business responsibilities, and the more they will have available to invest in the productive system. On the other hand, a few years of making losses will drive the poorer forecasters and entrepreneurs out of business altogether and push them into the ranks of salaried employees.
If, then, the market economy has a built-in natural selection mechanism for good entrepreneurs, this means that, generally, we would expect not many business firms to be making losses. And, in fact, if we look around at the economy on an average day or year, we will find that losses are not very widespread. But, in that case, the odd fact that needs explaining is this: How is it that, periodically, in times of the onset of recessions and especially in steep depressions, the business world suddenly experiences a massive cluster of severe losses? A moment arrives when business firms, previously highly astute entrepreneurs in their ability to make profits and avoid losses, suddenly and dismayingly find themselves, almost all of them, suffering severe and unaccountable losses – How come? Here is a momentous fact that any theory of depressions must explain. An explanation such as "underconsumption" – a drop in total consumer spending – is not sufficient, for one thing, because what needs to be explained is why businessmen, able to forecast all manner of previous economic changes and developments, proved themselves totally and catastrophically unable to forecast this alleged drop in consumer demand. Why this sudden failure in forecasting ability?
An adequate theory of depressions, then, must account for the tendency of the economy to move through successive booms and busts, showing no sign of settling into any sort of smoothly moving, or quietly progressive, approximation of an equilibrium situation. In particular, a theory of depression must account for the mammoth cluster of errors which appears swiftly and suddenly at a moment of economic crisis, and lingers through the depression period until recovery. And there is a third universal fact that a theory of the cycle must account for. Invariably, the booms and busts are much more intense and severe in the "capital goods industries" – the industries making machines and equipment, the ones producing industrial raw materials or constructing industrial plants – than in the industries making consumers' goods. Here is another fact of business cycle life that must be explained – and obviously can't be explained by such theories of depression as the popular underconsumption doctrine: That consumers aren't spending enough on consumer goods. For if insufficient spending is the culprit, then how is it that retail sales are the last and the least to fall in any depression, and that depression really hits such industries as machine tools, capital equipment, construction, and raw materials? Conversely, it is these industries that really take off in the inflationary boom phases of the business cycle, and not those businesses serving the consumer. An adequate theory of the business cycle, then, must also explain the far greater intensity of booms and busts in the non-consumer goods, or "producers' goods," industries.
Fortunately, a correct theory of depression and of the business cycle does exist, even though it is universally neglected in present-day economics. It, too, has a long tradition in economic thought. This theory began with the eighteenth century Scottish philosopher and economist David Hume, and with the eminent early nineteenth century English classical economist David Ricardo. Essentially, these theorists saw that another crucial institution had developed in the mid-eighteenth century, alongside the industrial system. This was the institution of banking, with its capacity to expand credit and the money supply (first, in the form of paper money, or bank notes, and later in the form of demand deposits, or checking accounts, that are instantly redeemable in cash at the banks). It was the operations of these commercial banks which, these economists saw, held the key to the mysterious recurrent cycles of expansion and contraction, of boom and bust, that had puzzled observers since the mid-eighteenth century.
The Ricardian analysis of the business cycle went something as follows: The natural moneys emerging as such on the world free market are useful commodities, generally gold and silver. If money were confined simply to these commodities, then the economy would work in the aggregate as it does in particular markets: A smooth adjustment of supply and demand, and therefore no cycles of boom and bust. But the injection of bank credit adds another crucial and disruptive element. For the banks expand credit and therefore bank money in the form of notes or deposits which are theoretically redeemable on demand in gold, but in practice clearly are not. For example, if a bank has 1000 ounces of gold in its vaults, and it issues instantly redeemable warehouse receipts for 2500 ounces of gold, then it clearly has issued 1500 ounces more than it can possibly redeem. But so long as there is no concerted "run" on the bank to cash in these receipts, its warehouse-receipts function on the market as equivalent to gold, and therefore the bank has been able to expand the money supply of the country by 1500 gold ounces.
The banks, then, happily begin to expand credit, for the more they expand credit the greater will be their profits. This results in the expansion of the money supply within a country, say England. As the supply of paper and bank money in England increases, the money incomes and expenditures of Englishmen rise, and the increased money bids up prices of English goods. The result is inflation and a boom within the country. But this inflationary boom, while it proceeds on its merry way, sows the seeds of its own demise. For as English money supply and incomes increase, Englishmen proceed to purchase more goods from abroad. Furthermore, as English prices go up, English goods begin to lose their competitiveness with the products of other countries which have not inflated, or have been inflating to a lesser degree. Englishmen begin to buy less at home and more abroad, while foreigners buy less in England and more at home; the result is a deficit in the English balance of payments, with English exports falling sharply behind imports. But if imports exceed exports, this means that money must flow out of England to foreign countries. And what money will this be? Surely not English bank notes or deposits, for Frenchmen or Germans or Italians have little or no interest in keeping their funds locked up in English banks. These foreigners will therefore take their bank notes and deposits and present them to the English banks for redemption in gold – and gold will be the type of money that will tend to flow persistently out of the country as the English inflation proceeds on its way. But this means that English bank credit money will be, more and more, pyramiding on top of a dwindling gold base in the English bank vaults. As the boom proceeds, our hypothetical bank will expand its warehouse receipts issued from, say 2500 ounces to 4000 ounces, while its gold base dwindles to, say, 800. As this process intensifies, the banks will eventually become frightened. For the banks, after all, are obligated to redeem their liabilities in cash, and their cash is flowing out rapidly as their liabilities pile up. Hence, the banks will eventually lose their nerve, stop their credit expansion, and in order to save themselves, contract their bank loans outstanding. Often, this retreat is precipitated by bankrupting runs on the banks touched off by the public, who had also been getting increasingly nervous about the ever more shaky condition of the nation's banks.
The bank contraction reverses the economic picture; contraction and bust follow boom. The banks pull in their horns, and businesses suffer as the pressure mounts for debt repayment and contraction. The fall in the supply of bank money, in turn, leads to a general fall in English prices. As money supply and incomes fall, and English prices collapse, English goods become relatively more attractive in terms of foreign products, and the balance of payments reverses itself, with exports exceeding imports. As gold flows into the country, and as bank money contracts on top of an expanding gold base, the condition of the banks becomes much sounder.
This, then, is the meaning of the depression phase of the business cycle. Note that it is a phase that comes out of, and inevitably comes out of, the preceding expansionary boom. It is the preceding inflation that makes the depression phase necessary. We can see, for example, that the depression is the process by which the market economy adjusts, throws off the excesses and distortions of the previous inflationary boom, and reestablishes a sound economic condition. The depression is the unpleasant but necessary reaction to the distortions and excesses of the previous boom.
Why, then, does the next cycle begin? Why do business cycles tend to be recurrent and continuous? Because when the banks have pretty well recovered, and are in a sounder condition, they are then in a confident position to proceed to their natural path of bank credit expansion, and the next boom proceeds on its way, sowing the seeds for the next inevitable bust.
But if banking is the cause of the business cycle, aren't the banks also a part of the private market economy, and can't we therefore say that the free market is still the culprit, if only in the banking segment of that free market? The answer is No, for the banks, for one thing, would never be able to expand credit in concert were it not for the intervention and encouragement of government. For if banks were truly competitive, any expansion of credit by one bank would quickly pile up the debts of that bank in its competitors, and its competitors would quickly call upon the expanding bank for redemption in cash. In short, a bank's rivals will call upon it for redemption in gold or cash in the same way as do foreigners, except that the process is much faster and would nip any incipient inflation in the bud before it got started. Banks can only expand comfortably in unison when a Central Bank exists, essentially a governmental bank, enjoying a monopoly of government business, and a privileged position imposed by government over the entire banking system. It is only when central banking got established that the banks were able to expand for any length of time and the familiar business cycle got underway in the modern world.
The central bank acquires its control over the banking system by such governmental measures as: Making its own liabilities legal tender for all debts and receivable in taxes; granting the central bank monopoly of the issue of bank notes, as contrasted to deposits (in England the Bank of England, the governmentally established central bank, had a legal monopoly of bank notes in the London area); or through the outright forcing of banks to use the central bank as their client for keeping their reserves of cash (as in the United States and its Federal Reserve System). Not that the banks complain about this intervention; for it is the establishment of central banking that makes long-term bank credit expansion possible, since the expansion of Central Bank notes provides added cash reserves for the entire banking system and permits all the commercial banks to expand their credit together. Central banking works like a cozy compulsory bank cartel to expand the banks' liabilities; and the banks are now able to expand on a larger base of cash in the form of central bank notes as well as gold.
So now we see, at last, that the business cycle is brought about, not by any mysterious failings of the free market economy, but quite the opposite: By systematic intervention by government in the market process. Government intervention brings about bank expansion and inflation, and, when the inflation comes to an end, the subsequent depression-adjustment comes into play.
The Ricardian theory of the business cycle grasped the essentials of a correct cycle theory: The recurrent nature of the phases of the cycle, depression as adjustment intervention in the market rather than from the free-market economy. But two problems were as yet unexplained: Why the sudden cluster of business error, the sudden failure of the entrepreneurial function, and why the vastly greater fluctuations in the producers' goods than in the consumers' goods industries? The Ricardian theory only explained movements in the price level, in general business; there was no hint of explanation of the vastly different reactions in the capital and consumers' goods industries.
The correct and fully developed theory of the business cycle was finally discovered and set forth by the Austrian economist Ludwig von Mises, when he was a professor at the University of Vienna. Mises developed hints of his solution to the vital problem of the business cycle in his monumental Theory of Money and Credit, published in 1912, and still, nearly 60 years later, the best book on the theory of money and banking. Mises developed his cycle theory during the 1920s, and it was brought to the English-speaking world by Mises's leading follower, Friedrich A. von Hayek, who came from Vienna to teach at the London School of Economics in the early 1930s, and who published, in German and in English, two books which applied and elaborated the Mises cycle theory: Monetary Theory and the Trade Cycle, and Prices and Production. Since Mises and Hayek were Austrians, and also since they were in the tradition of the great nineteenth-century Austrian economists, this theory has become known in the literature as the "Austrian" (or the "monetary over-investment") theory of the business cycle.
Building on the Ricardians, on general "Austrian" theory, and on his own creative genius, Mises developed the following theory of the business cycle:
Without bank credit expansion, supply and demand tend to be equilibrated through the free price system, and no cumulative booms or busts can then develop. But then government through its central bank stimulates bank credit expansion by expanding central bank liabilities and therefore the cash reserves of all the nation's commercial banks. The banks then proceed to expand credit and hence the nation's money supply in the form of check deposits. As the Ricardians saw, this expansion of bank money drives up the prices of goods and hence causes inflation. But, Mises showed, it does something else, and something even more sinister. Bank credit expansion, by pouring new loan funds into the business world, artificially lowers the rate of interest in the economy below its free market level.
On the free and unhampered market, the interest rate is determined purely by the "time-preferences" of all the individuals that make up the market economy. For the essence of a loan is that a "present good" (money which can be used at present) is being exchanged for a "future good" (an IOU which can only be used at some point in the future). Since people always prefer money right now to the present prospect of getting the same amount of money some time in the future, the present good always commands a premium in the market over the future. This premium is the interest rate, and its height will vary according to the degree to which people prefer the present to the future, i.e., the degree of their time-preferences.
People's time-preferences also determine the extent to which people will save and invest, as compared to how much they will consume. If people's time-preferences should fall, i.e., if their degree of preference for present over future falls, then people will tend to consume less now and save and invest more; at the same time, and for the same reason, the rate of interest, the rate of time-discount, will also fall. Economic growth comes about largely as the result of falling rates of time-preference, which lead to an increase in the proportion of saving and investment to consumption, and also to a falling rate of interest.
But what happens when the rate of interest falls, not because of lower time-preferences and higher savings, but from government interference that promotes the expansion of bank credit? In other words, if the rate of interest falls artificially, due to intervention, rather than naturally, as a result of changes in the valuations and preferences of the consuming public?
What happens is trouble. For businessmen, seeing the rate of interest fall, react as they always would and must to such a change of market signals: They invest more in capital and producers' goods. Investments, particularly in lengthy and time-consuming projects, which previously looked unprofitable now seem profitable, because of the fall of the interest charge. In short, businessmen react as they would react if savings had genuinely increased: They expand their investment in durable equipment, in capital goods, in industrial raw material, in construction as compared to their direct production of consumer goods.
Businesses, in short, happily borrow the newly expanded bank money that is coming to them at cheaper rates; they use the money to invest in capital goods, and eventually this money gets paid out in higher rents to land, and higher wages to workers in the capital goods industries. The increased business demand bids up labor costs, but businesses think they can pay these higher costs because they have been fooled by the government-and-bank intervention in the loan market and its decisively important tampering with the interest-rate signal of the marketplace.
The problem comes as soon as the workers and landlords – largely the former, since most gross business income is paid out in wages – begin to spend the new bank money that they have received in the form of higher wages. For the time-preferences of the public have not really gotten lower; the public doesn't want to save more than it has. So the workers set about to consume most of their new income, in short to reestablish the old consumer/saving proportions. This means that they redirect the spending back to the consumer goods industries, and they don't save and invest enough to buy the newly-produced machines, capital equipment, industrial raw materials, etc. This all reveals itself as a sudden sharp and continuing depression in the producers' goods industries. Once the consumers reestablished their desired consumption/investment proportions, it is thus revealed that business had invested too much in capital goods and had underinvested in consumer goods. Business had been seduced by the governmental tampering and artificial lowering of the rate of interest, and acted as if more savings were available to invest than were really there. As soon as the new bank money filtered through the system and the consumers reestablished their old proportions, it became clear that there were not enough savings to buy all the producers' goods, and that business had misinvested the limited savings available. Business had overinvested in capital goods and underinvested in consumer products.
The inflationary boom thus leads to distortions of the pricing and production system. Prices of labor and raw materials in the capital goods industries had been bid up during the boom too high to be profitable once the consumers reassert their old consumption/investment preferences. The "depression" is then seen as the necessary and healthy phase by which the market economy sloughs off and liquidates the unsound, uneconomic investments of the boom, and reestablishes those proportions between consumption and investment that are truly desired by the consumers. The depression is the painful but necessary process by which the free market sloughs off the excesses and errors of the boom and reestablishes the market economy in its function of efficient service to the mass of consumers. Since prices of factors of production have been bid too high in the boom, this means that prices of labor and goods in these capital goods industries must be allowed to fall until proper market relations are resumed.
Since the workers receive the increased money in the form of higher wages fairly rapidly, how is it that booms can go on for years without having their unsound investments revealed, their errors due to tampering with market signals become evident, and the depression-adjustment process begins its work? The answer is that booms would be very short lived if the bank credit expansion and subsequent pushing of the rate of interest below the free market level were a one-shot affair. But the point is that the credit expansion is not one-shot; it proceeds on and on, never giving consumers the chance to reestablish their preferred proportions of consumption and saving, never allowing the rise in costs in the capital goods industries to catch up to the inflationary rise in prices. Like the repeated doping of a horse, the boom is kept on its way and ahead of its inevitable comeuppance, by repeated doses of the stimulant of bank credit. It is only when bank credit expansion must finally stop, either because the banks are getting into a shaky condition or because the public begins to balk at the continuing inflation, that retribution finally catches up with the boom. As soon as credit expansion stops, then the piper must be paid, and the inevitable readjustments liquidate the unsound over-investments of the boom, with the reassertion of a greater proportionate emphasis on consumers' goods production.
Thus, the Misesian theory of the business cycle accounts for all of our puzzles: The repeated and recurrent nature of the cycle, the massive cluster of entrepreneurial error, the far greater intensity of the boom and bust in the producers' goods industries.
Mises, then, pinpoints the blame for the cycle on inflationary bank credit expansion propelled by the intervention of government and its central bank. What does Mises say should be done, say by government, once the depression arrives? What is the governmental role in the cure of depression? In the first place, government must cease inflating as soon as possible. It is true that this will, inevitably, bring the inflationary boom abruptly to an end, and commence the inevitable recession or depression. But the longer the government waits for this, the worse the necessary readjustments will have to be. The sooner the depression-readjustment is gotten over with, the better. This means, also, that the government must never try to prop up unsound business situations; it must never bail out or lend money to business firms in trouble. Doing this will simply prolong the agony and convert a sharp and quick depression phase into a lingering and chronic disease. The government must never try to prop up wage rates or prices of producers' goods; doing so will prolong and delay indefinitely the completion of the depression-adjustment process; it will cause indefinite and prolonged depression and mass unemployment in the vital capital goods industries. The government must not try to inflate again, in order to get out of the depression. For even if this reinflation succeeds, it will only sow greater trouble later on. The government must do nothing to encourage consumption, and it must not increase its own expenditures, for this will further increase the social consumption/investment ratio. In fact, cutting the government budget will improve the ratio. What the economy needs is not more consumption spending but more saving, in order to validate some of the excessive investments of the boom.
Thus, what the government should do, according to the Misesian analysis of the depression, is absolutely nothing. It should, from the point of view of economic health and ending the depression as quickly as possible, maintain a strict hands off, "laissez-faire" policy. Anything it does will delay and obstruct the adjustment process of the market; the less it does, the more rapidly will the market adjustment process do its work, and sound economic recovery ensue.
The Misesian prescription is thus the exact opposite of the Keynesian: It is for the government to keep absolute hands off the economy and to confine itself to stopping its own inflation and to cutting its own budget.
It has today been completely forgotten, even among economists, that the Misesian explanation and analysis of the depression gained great headway precisely during the Great Depression of the 1930s – the very depression that is always held up to advocates of the free market economy as the greatest single and catastrophic failure of laissez-faire capitalism. It was no such thing. 1929 was made inevitable by the vast bank credit expansion throughout the Western world during the 1920s: A policy deliberately adopted by the Western governments, and most importantly by the Federal Reserve System in the United States. It was made possible by the failure of the Western world to return to a genuine gold standard after World War I, and thus allowing more room for inflationary policies by government. Everyone now thinks of President Coolidge as a believer in laissez-faire and an unhampered market economy; he was not, and tragically, nowhere less so than in the field of money and credit. Unfortunately, the sins and errors of the Coolidge intervention were laid to the door of a non-existent free market economy.
If Coolidge made 1929 inevitable, it was President Hoover who prolonged and deepened the depression, transforming it from a typically sharp but swiftly-disappearing depression into a lingering and near-fatal malady, a malady "cured" only by the holocaust of World War II. Hoover, not Franklin Roosevelt, was the founder of the policy of the "New Deal": essentially the massive use of the State to do exactly what Misesian theory would most warn against – to prop up wage rates above their free-market levels, prop up prices, inflate credit, and lend money to shaky business positions. Roosevelt only advanced, to a greater degree, what Hoover had pioneered. The result for the first time in American history, was a nearly perpetual depression and nearly permanent mass unemployment. The Coolidge crisis had become the unprecedentedly prolonged Hoover-Roosevelt depression.
Ludwig von Mises had predicted the depression during the heyday of the great boom of the 1920s – a time, just like today, when economists and politicians, armed with a "new economics" of perpetual inflation, and with new "tools" provided by the Federal Reserve System, proclaimed a perpetual "New Era" of permanent prosperity guaranteed by our wise economic doctors in Washington. Ludwig von Mises, alone armed with a correct theory of the business cycle, was one of the very few economists to predict the Great Depression, and hence the economic world was forced to listen to him with respect. F. A. Hayek spread the word in England, and the younger English economists were all, in the early 1930s, beginning to adopt the Misesian cycle theory for their analysis of the depression – and also to adopt, of course, the strictly free-market policy prescription that flowed with this theory. Unfortunately, economists have now adopted the historical notion of Lord Keynes: That no "classical economists" had a theory of the business cycle until Keynes came along in 1936. There was a theory of the depression; it was the classical economic tradition; its prescription was strict hard money and laissez-faire; and it was rapidly being adopted, in England and even in the United States, as the accepted theory of the business cycle. (A particular irony is that the major "Austrian" proponent in the United States in the early and mid-1930s was none other than Professor Alvin Hansen, very soon to make his mark as the outstanding Keynesian disciple in this country.)
What swamped the growing acceptance of Misesian cycle theory was simply the "Keynesian Revolution" – the amazing sweep that Keynesian theory made of the economic world shortly after the publication of the General Theory in 1936. It is not that Misesian theory was refuted successfully; it was just forgotten in the rush to climb on the suddenly fashionable Keynesian bandwagon. Some of the leading adherents of the Mises theory – who clearly knew better – succumbed to the newly established winds of doctrine, and won leading American university posts as a consequence.
But now the once arch-Keynesian London Economist has recently proclaimed that "Keynes is Dead." After over a decade of facing trenchant theoretical critiques and refutation by stubborn economic facts, the Keynesians are now in general and massive retreat. Once again, the money supply and bank credit are being grudgingly acknowledged to play a leading role in the cycle. The time is ripe – for a rediscovery, a renaissance, of the Mises theory of the business cycle. It can come none too soon; if it ever does, the whole concept of a Council of Economic Advisors would be swept away, and we would see a massive retreat of government from the economic sphere. But for all this to happen, the world of economics, and the public at large, must be made aware of the existence of an explanation of the business cycle that has lain neglected on the shelf for all too many tragic years.
This essay was originally published as a minibook by the Constitutional Alliance of Lansing, Michigan, 1969.
Murray N. Rothbard (1926–1995) was the author of Man, Economy, and State, Conceived in Liberty, What Has Government Done to Our Money, For a New Liberty, The Case Against the Fed, and many other books and articles. He was also the editor – with Lew Rockwell – of The Rothbard-Rockwell Report, and academic vice president of the Ludwig von Mises Institute.
Copyright © 2008 Ludwig von Mises Institute
All rights reserved.
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